Big Results Take Time

Introduction

Many of us fall victim to the planning fallacy—a cognitive bias where we overestimate what we can accomplish in the short term while underestimating our long-term potential. We often set ambitious goals for the next year, only to feel disappointed when we fall short. Yet, the same efforts over a decade can lead to achievements beyond our expectations.

In this article, we’ll explore how the planning fallacy affects our perception of progress, why we tend to underestimate long-term results, and strategies for overcoming this bias to set realistic, effective plans for long-term success.

Prerequisites

You'll resonate with this principle if you've had any of the following experiences:

• Frustration from short-term goals not yielding quick results.
• Realizing you accomplished more than expected over time.
• Encountered setbacks that led you to rethink your short-term plans.
• Witnessed the power of consistent effort or compound growth over time.

Overestimating Short-Term Results

The planning fallacy was first proposed by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. It refers to our tendency to underestimate how long tasks will take, leading to over-ambitious short-term plans. This can lead to disappointment, frustration, and even burnout when results don’t come as quickly as expected.

The planning fallacy occurs because we often base our expectations on an idealized version of the future. We ignore potential obstacles, distractions, or unforeseen events that can slow our progress. Additionally, we focus on immediate rewards and neglect the long-term compounding effect of consistent effort over time.

The planning fallacy is common in both personal and professional settings. We often overestimate the amount of work we can accomplish and underestimate project timelines.

Underestimating Long-Term Success

While we tend to overestimate short-term achievements, we frequently underestimate what we can accomplish over a longer period. This happens because we don’t account for the cumulative effect of steady, incremental progress. Consistent effort over time compounds, leading to significant results that we often can’t envision at the start.

Much like compound interest in finance, small daily efforts accumulate to produce substantial long-term growth. For example, practicing a skill for just 30 minutes a day may not show immediate results, but over the course of a year or even ten years, the improvement can be remarkable. This compounding effect is often invisible in the short term, which is why we tend to overlook it when setting goals.

Strategies to Overcome the Planning Fallacy

To combat the planning fallacy, it’s essential analyse our actual performance, to have realistic predictions for the future. Here are some strategies:

1. Break Down Long-Term Goals Into Milestones

Even though your big goal may take years to achieve, breaking it down into smaller, measurable milestones will make it more manageable. By setting short-term milestones that align with your long-term vision, you can track progress and celebrate wins along the way, which helps keep you motivated.

2. Regularly Reflect on Your Trajectory

Periodically reflecting on your progress is essential for staying on track. Assess how far you’ve come, what’s working, and where adjustments are needed. This will allow you to recalibrate your efforts and ensure that you’re moving steadily toward your long-term goals.

3. Be Flexible with Short-Term Plans

While it's important to plan, be mindful that short-term setbacks are inevitable. Flexibility allows you to adjust your strategy without feeling like you’re failing. If a short-term plan doesn’t work out, remember that it doesn’t mean your long-term goal is out of reach. Flexibility is key to overcoming the planning fallacy.

4. Focus on Consistency, Not Speed

Rather than rushing toward short-term success, prioritize consistency. Consistent daily or weekly effort builds long-term momentum. Over time, this will lead to far greater success than sporadic bursts of energy that quickly burn out.

Related Programs

Notable Mentions

• Gamify Your Life: This program helps you visualize your progress by transforming it into levels, points, and personal stats. By tracking your daily efforts and achievements through gamification, you can clearly see how your actions accumulate over time. This visibility combats the planning fallacy by making long-term progress tangible and motivating.
• Be Intentional: This program teaches you how to plan intentionally with clear goals in mind. It emphasizes setting realistic expectations, creating actionable plans, and making steady progress toward success. By fostering an intentional approach, you can avoid overestimating short-term gains and stay focused on the bigger picture.
• L-CTRL(opens in a new tab): In this program, you’ll learn how to take control of your life by establishing systems that ensure continuous improvement, helping you get long term results through consistent daily actions.

References and Further Reading

1. Marginal Gains(opens in a new tab) – James Clear’s article on how small, incremental gains compound over time to create significant long-term success.